There is reckoned to be an 84% chance of a major earthquake during the next 50 years along the Seattle fault in Washington state, USA.
Journalists at The Seattle Times have been investigating the state’s preparedness for a major earthquake similar, or greater, in magnitude to the 2001 Nisqually earthquake.
They highlight a number of areas where much needs to be done to protect the state’s schools, hospitals and other public institutions.
The Seattle Times also suggests that the area is long overdue for a megaquake 2,000 times more powerful than the Nisqually quake. This would be a ‘full rip 9.0’ event caused by a massive shift of tectonic plates off the Pacific Coast. There has not been a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake since 1700, but scientists know that magnitude 8.0 quakes happen once every 250 years on average.
In 2009 geologists at Oregon State University predicted a 10% – 14% probability that the Cascadia Subduction Zone will produce an event of magnitude 9.0 or higher in the next 50 years. In 2010 further research reckoned the risk could be as high as 37% for earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or higher.
The Seattle Times science reporter Sandi Doughton exploring this issue : Full-Rip 9.0: The Next Big Earthquake in the Pacific Northwest (2014).
DATE : 7 December 2016